The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for parts of Florida as it began advisories on what it’s now calling Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.
As of 11 a.m., the center of the broad system that’s forming from a tropical wave is located about 90 miles east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba and 420 miles southeast of Key West with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph as it moves west-northwest at 16 mph.
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable north to Bonita Beach and a tropical storm watch in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge that connects Miami-Dade to Key Largo down to Key West including the Dry Tortugas, as well as the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka on the border of Pasco and Hernando County north of Tampa.
How tropical system could impact Florida this weekend
“A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven. “On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.”
The NHC still gives the system a 70% chance of development in the next two days and 90% chance in the next seven.
The intensity is expected to increase into a tropical depression by Saturday and then into what could become Tropical Storm Debby by Saturday night after it moves across the Straits of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The first forecast cone has it making landfall north of Tampa on Sunday with winds shy of hurricane strength, but still 65 mph sustained winds and gusts of 75 mph.
“Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night,” Beven said. “Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday.”
In addition, storm surge is forecast to be as high as 3 feet from Aripeka to the Card Sound Bridge, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, depending on high tide.
The NHC expects rainfall from 4 to 8 inches with some areas getting up to 12 inches across portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. this weekend and through Wednesday morning that could cause flash and urban flooding as well as some isolated river flooding.
For now, the system is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
The NHC’s official path is fed by several weather models that have the path steering it up Florida’s west coast and moving inland.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared most Florida counties under a state of emergency around 5 p.m. Wednesday. Floods could ensue if the system continued its current slow course or even stalled over the Florida peninsula.
“Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” Beven said. “A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.”
The tropical wave stretches over hundreds of miles from the Caribbean Sea all the way north to the central Bahamas in the Atlantic. It’s moving west around 20 mph and the northern end has seen wave heights up to 7 feet on Friday.
For Central Florida, the National Weather Service in Melbourne forecasts up to 2 inches of rain in some areas.
“There remains a great deal of uncertainty in terms of placement, track, and potential strength this system will have,” said NWS Meteorologist Melissa Watson. “Until a low actually develops, models will continue to have problems with this feature, however trends continue to suggest possible development near the southeastern Gulf of Mexico northward.”
The Weather Prediction Center says Central Florida has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday and on the southern side of the region on Sunday, with the greatest potential for showers and storms on Sundya and Monday at 70-80% areawide. It’s at 50-60% on Saturday.
“Depending on the tropical situation, we could see some gusty squalls and periods of heavy rainfall this weekend and into next week,” Watson said.
Farther south, according to NWS Miami, some areas over the weekend could see up to 5 inches of rain.
“Regardless of development, this will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture to the region which will result in the potential for excessive rainfall and localized flooding throughout the day on Saturday,” said NWS Miami Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza. “What still remains highly uncertain is the details of exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur.”
The tropical action is the first tracked by the NHC since Hurricane Beryl moved through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas in late June and early July.
Three weeks of dry Saharan dust moving west off the African continent into the Atlantic has stymied development over the ocean, although water temperatures remain above normal.
So far the season has seen three named storms. It’s not forecast to intensify, but if this system got strong enough, it could become Tropical Storm Debby.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm formation runs from mid-August into October.
